WindAI's predictions for 2024 capacity factor were checked against every US wind plant tracked by LBNL's Land-Based Wind Market Report — none of which the model had ever seen.
The data, the holdout, and what gets reported. The full methodology is in the white paper.
Each marker is a real wind farm. Click any plant to see the prediction, the observed 2024 capacity factor, and the gap.
Marker size scales with plant capacity (MW). Click a marker for the full plant detail, or scroll to the table below to sort by error.
Each dot is a plant. Closer to the dashed 1:1 line is better. Color matches the map: green tight, amber typical, red wide.
A geographically diverse subset. Click any card for full detail including coordinates, COD year, and (where available) hourly drill-down charts.
Every plant we tested. No averaging, no curating. Click any row to open the detail panel; click a column header to sort.
| Source | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deerfield II Wind project | MI, USA | LBWMR | 112 | 31.4% | 31.0% | 0.4 pp |
| Clearwater Energy Project 1A | MT, USA | LBWMR | 366 | 38.4% | 38.9% | 0.4 pp |
| Sweetland | SD, USA | LBWMR | 199 | 47.7% | 48.2% | 0.5 pp |
| Moraine Sands Wind | IL, USA | LBWMR | 171 | 39.5% | 38.7% | 0.8 pp |
| Baron Winds I | NY, USA | LBWMR | 122 | 30.1% | 31.1% | 1.0 pp |
| Sunflower Wind (KS) | KS, USA | LBWMR | 200 | 45.7% | 44.6% | 1.1 pp |
| Brazos Wind Repower | TX, USA | LBWMR | 182 | 41.1% | 39.9% | 1.2 pp |
| Priddy | TX, USA | LBWMR | 302 | 36.1% | 37.3% | 1.2 pp |
| Shady Oaks II | IL, USA | LBWMR | 108 | 35.3% | 34.1% | 1.2 pp |
| White Rock West | OK, USA | LBWMR | 102 | 41.7% | 40.4% | 1.3 pp |
| Clearwater Wind II | MT, USA | LBWMR | 103 | 41.8% | 40.3% | 1.5 pp |
| Midland Wind | IL, USA | LBWMR | 106 | 35.0% | 33.3% | 1.7 pp |
| GSG Repower | IL, USA | LBWMR | 88 | 42.5% | 40.8% | 1.7 pp |
| Bronco Plains Wind II | CO, USA | LBWMR | 199 | 41.5% | 39.7% | 1.8 pp |
| Sapphire Sky Wind Energy Center | IL, USA | LBWMR | 260 | 41.7% | 43.5% | 1.8 pp |
| 25 Mile Creek | OK, USA | LBWMR | 250 | 50.3% | 52.2% | 1.9 pp |
| Northern Wind Repower | MN, USA | LBWMR | 100 | 42.1% | 44.0% | 1.9 pp |
| Inertia Wind Project | TX, USA | LBWMR | 301 | 47.2% | 49.1% | 1.9 pp |
| Bluestone Wind | NY, USA | LBWMR | 112 | 29.8% | 31.7% | 1.9 pp |
| Red Barn Wind | WI, USA | LBWMR | 92 | 33.3% | 35.3% | 2.0 pp |
| Sandy Ridge 2 | PA, USA | LBWMR | 88 | 28.6% | 30.6% | 2.0 pp |
| Albany Grasmere | Australia | White paper | 14 | 23.7% | 23.2% | 2.1 pp |
| Thunderhead Wind | NE, USA | LBWMR | 299 | 44.7% | 47.0% | 2.3 pp |
| Ledyard Windpower | IA, USA | LBWMR | 207 | 43.5% | 45.8% | 2.3 pp |
| Helena Wind | TX, USA | LBWMR | 264 | 32.0% | 34.4% | 2.4 pp |
| Blackjack Creek | TX, USA | LBWMR | 240 | 24.9% | 27.6% | 2.6 pp |
| Traverse Wind | OK, USA | LBWMR | 996 | 37.0% | 34.3% | 2.7 pp |
| Comber | Canada | White paper | 166 | 29.0% | 28.2% | 2.8 pp |
data/validation/lbwmr_2024_validation_top50_results.csvWhat an investor actually wants to know: dollars. Below is the Amazon Wind Farm TX (253 MW) 2019 calendar year — WindAI's generation prediction multiplied through real ERCOT West Texas hub day-ahead LMP prices, compared to actual settled revenue.
Revenue = generation (MWh) × average LMP price ($/MWh), using real ERCOT HB_WEST day-ahead settlement point prices. August 2019 dominates due to extreme heat waves that drove the average LMP to $126/MWh (with peaks hitting $3,500/MWh). September also saw elevated prices at $78/MWh average (max $5,010/MWh — the ERCOT cap).
Honest framing of what these numbers do and don't say.