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WindAI's neural network was trained on 10M+ hourly observations from 300+ operational wind farms. Here are the results on plants it has never seen.
Performance on 6 completely held-out test plants the model never saw during training.
These metrics are computed on a test set of 6 wind farms across 4 countries (Australia, USA, Belgium, Canada) that were completely excluded from model training. The RMSE and MAE are reported in capacity factor units (0 to 1 scale). The annual error measures the difference between predicted and actual annual capacity factor for each plant.
All 6 held-out test plants with their predicted vs actual annual capacity factors.
| Plant | Country | Type | Actual CF | Predicted CF | Error (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany Grasmere | Australia | Onshore | 23.7% | 23.2% | 2.1% |
| Amazon Wind Farm TX | USA | Onshore | 44.3% | 42.3% | 4.5% |
| Belwind I | Belgium | Offshore | 35.9% | 37.7% | 5.0% |
| Bobcat Bluff TX | USA | Onshore | 33.6% | 36.1% | 7.4% |
| Comber | Canada | Onshore | 29.0% | 28.2% | 2.8% |
| Kingsbridge I | Canada | Onshore | 30.6% | 28.2% | 7.8% |
Two-week sample from Albany Grasmere, Australia (highest correlation window)
The blue line shows the model's predicted capacity factor; the gray line shows the actual recorded output. The model captures both the diurnal pattern (higher wind at night) and multi-day weather systems.
Albany Grasmere, Australia — Southern Hemisphere seasonality (higher wind in winter months Jun-Aug)
Grouped bars show predicted (blue) vs actual (gray) monthly capacity factors. The model accurately captures the seasonal pattern with peak production during Southern Hemisphere winter (June-August) and lower output during summer.
Amazon Wind Farm TX, 2019 — Predicted vs actual revenue using ERCOT West Texas hub LMP prices
Revenue = generation (MWh) x average LMP price ($/MWh), using real ERCOT HB_WEST day-ahead settlement point prices. August 2019 dominates due to extreme heat waves that drove the average LMP to $126/MWh (with peaks hitting $3,500/MWh). September also saw elevated prices at $78/MWh avg (max $5,010/MWh — the ERCOT cap).